My Predictions for the Future of Direct Air Capture (DAC)
Below are my predictions about how the DAC landscape will look like in decades to come:
Demand-supply gap for DAC credits will increase leading to an exponential rise in the prices of DAC Credits in the next decade, making DAC Credits almost economically unviable for businesses . Demand for DAC is bound to increase further because as time runs out, nature based solutions will no longer be sufficient - emitters will run for technology based solutions like Direct-Air-Capture (DAC)
Because of economically unviable prices of removal credits, Corporations/Emitters with heavy carbon footprints will no longer seek removal credits, but technologies/stakes in DAC companies to do away with their own emissions. Then, DAC Technologies, and not the carbon removal credits, will be in demand.
DAC technologies will be worth somewhere between US $ 5 - 10 Billion (or more) in the next 5-10 Years.
Businesses/Corporations/Emitters will collaborate, buy DAC technologies & create joint DAC facilities.
Carbon Removal Credit marketplaces will ultimately go out of business as corporations will not buy or sell credits, but remove their own emissions from the atmosphere.
Businesses will start to chase DAC tech when slow nature based solutions become unfeasible due to lack of time. Currently nature based solutions look good, but after a decade or two, they will not.
With long term supply-demand gap and subsequent increase in prices of DAC removal credits, businesses will be reluctant to buy removal credits, would prefer to have their own inhouse facilities.
Rather than buying removal credits, they would prefer to buy DAC technologies and build their own facilities - so as to have control over the cost and quality of credits.
DAC facilities will not remain confined to a handful of companies, the way it is today, existing businesses will own more than 95% of DAC facilities.
Maximum 3 sustainable DAC technologies will become mainstream, will be used by more than 95% of DAC facilities, others will die.
Like captive power plants today, there will be captive DAC plants attached to other larger plants.
DAC will emerge as a whole industry like Power, Coal, Oil and Steel.
Governments will step in and either build or fund DAC facilities.